Trade: Who will be cast on Love Island UK: Season 13?

Opened 19 May 2026 · Settles 1 June 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is announced as a participant on Love Island UK: Season 13. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the listed individual is not announced as a participant by the end of the first episode of Love Island UK: Season 13, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the first qualifying announcement, regardless of whether an announced participant is later dropped from the cast. If no episodes of Love Island UK: Season 13 are released by August 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to announcements from ITV, or a consensus of credible reporting.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $3K
24h Volume: $2K
Open Interest: $586

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Market outcomes

Aidan Murphy	100% YES	0% NO
Grace Avelli	0% YES	100% NO
Charleen Murphy	0% YES	100% NO
Lorenzo Alessi	100% YES	0% NO

Market context

Love Island UK's thirteenth season will require ITV to cast a fresh cohort of contestants before the show's premiere. The current order book on Polymarket is pricing this specific individual's inclusion at certainty, reflecting either strong prior indication of their casting or substantial backing from traders with insider information. Resolution hinges on an official announcement before the first episode airs, with the settlement window extending to June 2026 and a hard deadline of August 2026 for any episodes to have been released.

Historical casting patterns for Love Island UK show that pre-season speculation often proves unreliable; whilst some names circulate widely through tabloid reporting and social media, final rosters frequently include surprises and exclude favourites. Series 11 and 12 demonstrated that ITV typically announces contestants in batches across media outlets rather than individually, creating discrete windows where multiple casting confirmations cluster. The 100% implied probability suggests either a formal announcement has already occurred or traders are pricing in near-certain information from production sources.

Key catalysts include ITV's official casting announcements, which typically arrive weeks before premiere dates. Monitoring Love Island's social channels, entertainment news outlets including The Sun's TV section, and ITV's press releases will signal when the production company confirms the full roster. The show's filming schedule—usually commencing in spring for summer broadcast—means casting decisions solidify by early 2026. Any delays to production timelines or casting reshuffles could alter the probability trajectory, though the current market pricing suggests such contingencies are already discounted.

Wikipedia Context

Cast vote record
A cast vote record (CVR) is an electronic record of a voter's selections in an election, created when ballots are scanned or votes are cast electronically. The term is used predominantly in the context of elections in the United States. CVRs serve as the digital representation of how voters voted and are used for tabulating election results, conducting audit
Castelvetrano
Castelvetrano is a town and comune in the province of Trapani, Sicily, southern Italy. The archeological site of Selinunte is located within the municipal territory.
Giacomo Castelvetro
Giacomo Castelvetro was an Italian expatriate in Europe and England, humanist, teacher and travel writer.
Castelvecchio Museum
Castelvecchio Museum is a museum in Verona, northern Italy, located in the eponymous medieval castle. Restoration by the architect Carlo Scarpa between 1959 and 1973 has enhanced the appearance of the building and exhibits. Scarpa's architectural style is visible in the details for doorways, staircases, furnishings, and even fixtures designed to hold a speci

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Who will be cast on Love Island UK: Season 13?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Who will be cast on Love Island UK: Season 13?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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