Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Academy Awards are given every year by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to a variety of films and film industry workers for outstanding displays of artistic and technical merit. This market will resolve according to the film which is nominated for the greatest number of Oscars at the 99th Academy Awards, currently expected to take place in March of 2027. A film will be considered to be nominated for an award if it or members of its crew, cast, or production are nominated for an award for work related to that film.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Project Hail Mary | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| The Bride! | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Film C | — | |
| Film G | — | |
| Film K | — | |
| Film O | — | |
| Wuthering Heights | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| The Social Reckoning | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The 99th Academy Awards ceremony will take place in March 2027, with nomination announcements expected in January. The market is pricing which single film will receive the highest number of Oscar nominations across all categories—a metric historically dominated by major studio productions with broad technical and artistic recognition. The current 16% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects significant uncertainty about which films will emerge as frontrunners nearly a year before the nomination deadline.
Historical precedent shows nomination counts cluster around prestige dramas and epics with substantial production budgets. Recent ceremonies have seen films like "Oppenheimer" (2024) and "The Power of the Dog" (2022) lead with 13 and 12 nominations respectively, whilst ensemble pieces and technical achievements often accumulate nominations across multiple categories. The distribution of nominations typically follows industry consensus around October-December of the awards year, when critical reception and festival performance solidify contender status.
Key catalysts for traders include major film festival results (Venice, Berlin, Cannes) throughout 2026, studio release schedules and marketing commitments, and industry guild awards (BAFTA, Golden Globes, SAG Awards) which precede Oscar nominations. Trade publications including Variety and The Hollywood Reporter regularly publish nomination predictions based on screener availability and industry sentiment. The nomination announcement date itself—typically mid-January 2027—will crystallise which film has achieved the broadest recognition, making the months preceding it critical for assessing emerging frontrunners.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which film will get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$17K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 February 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: