Resolution criteria on PolyGram: MrBeast releases videos on https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mr Beast says the listed term during the next video he releases on YouTube. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old videos or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market. Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market; however, other forms will NOT count.
Entertainment and pop-culture markets price events that traditional bookmakers won't touch — award winners, viral moments, cultural milestones. Current odds favour the YES side at 61%, making this a coinflip market with 2 days to resolution — final-48h markets historically see the largest volume spikes, backed by $5K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ times | 61% YES | 40% NO |
| Cash | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Mystery Box | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| Feastables | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Chandler | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Insane | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 20+ times | 54% YES | 46% NO |
| Dollar 10+ times | 48% YES | 52% NO |
MrBeast, the YouTube creator with over 200 million subscribers, releases frequent high-production videos featuring elaborate challenges and giveaways. This market resolves based on whether a specific term appears in his next uploaded video, with the settlement window extending to 30 May 2026. The resolution criteria are broad: any usage counts regardless of context, including pluralised or possessive forms, clips from older videos, and AI-generated audio or video.
The 60% implied probability reflects MrBeast's established content patterns and speaking style. His videos typically run 10–20 minutes with consistent vocabulary tied to his brand messaging around money, challenges, and competition. Historical comparable markets on creator speech patterns suggest that frequently-used terms in a creator's lexicon settle at higher probabilities, whilst niche terminology settles lower. MrBeast's prolific output—often multiple videos per month—provides regular resolution opportunities, reducing uncertainty compared to creators with sporadic release schedules.
Traders should monitor MrBeast's upload schedule on his YouTube channel and any announcements regarding content themes or collaborations that might influence his typical vocabulary. Recent reporting indicates he continues to focus on large-scale challenge content and philanthropic stunts. The broad resolution criteria—including prerecorded clips and any contextual usage—eliminate ambiguity around settlement, though the specific term being tracked will determine whether the current probability reflects a common phrase in his repertoire or a less frequent expression.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
For this market, the resolution date is 30 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. This particular market has no public resolution feed listed; disputes here are more likely if the underlying outcome is subject to interpretation, in which case the UMA token-vote arbitrates the wording of the original market question.
Pop-culture and entertainment markets settle from press releases or official announcements; if the underlying event reschedules, PolyGram extends the resolution date accordingly and re-opens trading until the new date. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?", pop-culture markets are usually shallower than sports or politics — a $500 trade can move the line 1-2¢, so larger orders benefit from a limit ladder.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($5K of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "What will MrBeast say during his next YouTube video?", the considerations above apply directly — Entertainment markets often have thinner books than sports or crypto contracts — a single $1k order can move the line several cents, so position-sizing discipline matters more here than in deeper markets.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: