Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Joe Rogan Experience podcast releases episodes on https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the first released episode of the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast between May 4, 2026 and May 10, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| People 100+ | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Hundred / Thousand / Million 10+ | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Congress | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Influencer | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Spotify | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Apple | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Chocolate | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Joe Rogan Experience releases new episodes throughout the week, typically on YouTube. This market concerns whether a specific term will be mentioned during whichever episode drops first between 4–10 May 2026. The settlement window extends to 10 May, meaning the resolution hinges on a single episode's content. The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either exceptionally high confidence in the term's appearance or minimal trading activity establishing price discovery; with such extreme pricing, the order book likely contains few competing bids, suggesting limited liquidity and potentially wide spreads between buy and sell sides.
Historical precedent suggests that broad-spectrum phrase-matching markets on Rogan's show tend toward resolution "Yes" given the podcast's conversational format, three-hour typical episode length, and tendency to cover wide-ranging topics. Comparable markets tracking common terminology or cultural references have resolved affirmatively at high rates. However, the specific term's frequency in contemporary discourse matters considerably—niche or technical terms resolve "No" more often than colloquialisms or trending phrases.
Traders should monitor Rogan's publicly announced guest schedule for the week of 4 May, as guest selection heavily influences discussion topics. Recent episodes have averaged 2.5–3 hours, providing substantial opportunity for phrase inclusion. The exact term's definition and any contextual requirements (whether partial matches count, whether it must be spoken rather than written on-screen) should be clarified before settlement, as ambiguity in resolution criteria has historically caused disputes on similar markets.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (May 4)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$58K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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