Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if new underwater wreckage from Malaysia Airlines Flight MH 370 is found by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolving this market, 'found' means that new underwater wreckage must be discovered between December 4, 2025 and June 30, 2026. Wreckage that washed ashore/afloat and previous findings of wreckage will NOT qualify - only underwater wreckage will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". It is not necessary for the wreckage to be recovered, only that its location is definitively identified.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 disappeared on 8 March 2014 with 239 people aboard whilst en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. Despite the largest aviation search effort in history, the main wreckage site remains undiscovered. Confirmed debris has washed ashore on coastlines across the Indian Ocean, with pieces recovered from Mozambique, Tanzania, Madagascar and other locations since 2015. The underwater search phase has been sporadic and geographically limited, constrained by the vast search area, extreme ocean depths, and funding constraints. Current Polymarket pricing reflects a 2% implied probability that new underwater wreckage will be definitively located between now and 30 June 2026.
Historical precedent suggests underwater discovery timelines for large aircraft are unpredictable. Air France Flight 447 sank in the Atlantic in 2009 and took two years to locate the main wreckage in deep water; by contrast, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 wreckage was found relatively quickly in accessible terrain. The Indian Ocean's depth, currents and remoteness present substantially greater challenges than either case. No major coordinated underwater search operation is currently scheduled or funded for the MH370 search zone during the resolution window.
Traders should monitor announcements from Malaysian authorities, the Joint Investigation Team, and any private search initiatives. Recent reports indicate renewed interest from technology firms and oceanographic organisations, though no concrete expeditions have been formally announced for early 2026. Funding commitments and diplomatic agreements between nations bordering the search area would serve as leading indicators of search activity likelihood.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$118K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $37 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 2%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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