Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 80-99 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 120-139 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 160-179 | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| 180-199 | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| 200-219 | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| 220-239 | 6% YES | 95% NO |
| 240-259 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 260-279 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
The market concerns Elon Musk's posting activity on X during a specific seven-day window in May 2026. The resolution criteria track main feed posts, quote posts and reposts from 12:00 PM ET on May 12 through 12:00 PM ET on May 19, with replies excluded unless they appear on the main feed timeline. The current order book implies a 1% probability for the YES side, suggesting traders expect either very few posts or are pricing in substantial uncertainty about the resolution mechanism itself.
Musk's historical posting patterns on X (formerly Twitter) show considerable volatility. During 2024–2025, his daily tweet volume ranged from zero posts on some days to 15+ on others, with spikes often coinciding with Tesla earnings announcements, product launches or geopolitical commentary. The May 2026 window carries no obvious scheduled Tesla event or earnings call, which may explain the depressed probability. However, Musk has demonstrated willingness to post frequently during periods of personal or corporate controversy, making the baseline forecast unreliable without specific catalysts.
Traders should monitor whether any major announcements—Tesla Shareholder Meeting dates, Starship test schedules, or regulatory developments—fall near or within the May 12–19 window. Recent patterns suggest Musk's posting frequency correlates more with external events than with seasonal factors. The low implied probability reflects either genuine expectation of minimal activity during that fortnight or scepticism about whether the tracker will reliably capture posts meeting the specified criteria. Order book depth remains thin, indicating limited conviction among market participants.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://x.com/elonmusk. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Elon Musk # tweets May 12 - May 19, 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$138K in lifetime turnover and $381K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $138K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://x.com/elonmusk. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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