Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then dated “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of May 23, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Dandelion - Ella Langley | 39% YES | 62% NO |
| Arirang - BTS | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Bully - Ye | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| I'm The Problem - Morgan Wallen | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| SWAG - Justin Bieber | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| The Art of Loving - Olivia Dean | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Octane - Don Toliver | 38% YES | 62% NO |
| The Great Divide - Noah Kahan | 53% YES | 48% NO |
The Billboard 200 chart dated "Week of May 23, 2026" will reflect album sales and streaming data collected Friday 17 May through Thursday 23 May, with the chart published on Tuesday 28 May. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 43% probability that a specific album (likely a major release anticipated for that window) will claim the number one position. This probability reflects genuine uncertainty around competing releases and consumer demand patterns in late May 2026.
Historical Billboard 200 outcomes show that chart dominance typically concentrates among established artists with coordinated release strategies and substantial pre-order momentum. Major label releases from established acts have consistently held top positions when released during their scheduled windows, though surprise releases and catalogue revivals occasionally disrupt expectations. The 43% implied probability suggests meaningful competition—either from multiple credible contenders or uncertainty about whether the anticipated frontrunner will actually release as scheduled.
Traders should monitor official release confirmations from major labels through April and May 2026, as scheduling shifts remain common in the music industry. Chart performance depends on first-week sales velocity, streaming numbers across all platforms, and whether competing releases shift their dates. Billboard's methodology weights paid downloads and streams equally, making streaming platform algorithms and playlist placements material factors. Any announcement of delays, format changes, or surprise competing releases in the fortnight before the settlement window closes on 19 May would materially alter the probability currently reflected in the order book.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of May 23" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$848 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $848 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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