Trade: #1 song on Spotify this week? (May 15)
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it on Fridays to reflect streaming data for the previous week, beginning on the preceding Friday and ending on Thursday. This market will resolve according to the most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the week labeled May 15. If Spotify does not release its top song for the week labeled May 15 by May 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The weekly top songs chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $16K
- Total Volume
- $6K
- 24h Volume
- $3K
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| Babydoll - Dominic Fike | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Stateside + Zara Larsson - PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Billie Jean - Michael Jackson | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| DAISIES - Justin Bieber | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj | 87% YES | 13% NO |
| Song B | — | |
| Song D | — | |
| Song F | — | |
Market context
Spotify publishes its global weekly streaming chart every Friday, with the top-streamed song for the week ending Thursday designated as the #1 track. The market resolves on the song holding this position for the week of 9–15 May 2026, based on official data Spotify releases through its Charts platform.
Historical precedent shows that Spotify's #1 weekly slot typically concentrates around established artists with sustained streaming momentum. Taylor Swift, The Weeknd, and Bad Bunny have dominated this position across multiple weeks in recent years, though breakthrough hits occasionally capture the top spot during release windows. The current 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the difficulty of predicting a specific song weeks in advance—the market is pricing in substantial uncertainty about which track will accumulate the highest streams across a global user base of over 600 million. This low probability is consistent with how such granular pop-culture outcomes typically trade when the resolution date is distant and competing releases remain unannounced.
Traders should monitor major artist release schedules in the weeks preceding mid-May 2026, as new album drops from major labels frequently capture streaming volume spikes. Announcements from Universal, Sony, and Warner Bros. regarding release dates will shape expectations. Additionally, viral moments on social media platforms and playlist inclusion decisions by Spotify's editorial team can significantly influence streaming patterns. The resolution window closes 16 May 2026 at 23:59 ET, allowing minimal time for late-breaking information to affect trading after Spotify's Friday publication.
Wikipedia Context
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+1 (song)"+1" is a single by French DJ and record producer Martin Solveig featuring British singer Sam White (vocals). The track was released in France as a digital download on 6 July 2015. It was written by Solveig, Samantha Urbani and C. Low. "+1" peaked at number 31 on the French Singles Chart, and also charted in Belgium and the Netherlands.
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1% (song)
"1%" is the fourth solo single by Tomomi Itano. It was released in Japan on June 12, 2013, on the label You, Be Cool!.
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The 1
"The 1" is a song by the American singer-songwriter Taylor Swift and the opening track of her eighth studio album, Folklore (2020). She wrote the song with its producer, Aaron Dessner. A folk and soft rock tune with elements of indie folk, "The 1" sets Swift's conversational vocals over a production consisting of piano and percussion. In its lyrics, the narr
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Spinning Top (EP)Spinning Top is the ninth extended play by the South Korean boy band Got7. It was released by JYP Entertainment and Dreamus on May 20, 2019. It peaked at No. 1 on the Gaon Album chart, and No. 5 on the US World Albums chart. It sold 314,948 units in South Korea at the end of 2019, becoming the 18th best selling album of the year, and was certified platinum b
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "#1 song on Spotify this week? (May 15)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$6K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for pop culture contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "#1 song on Spotify this week? (May 15)"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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