Trade: What will be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (May 11)
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The Joe Rogan Experience podcast releases episodes on https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed term is mentioned by anyone during the first released episode of the Joe Rogan Experience Podcast between May 11, 2026 and May 17, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". If clips of old episodes or prerecorded clips are aired where people are speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will count toward this market's resolution. Any usage of the term, regardless of context, will count toward the resolution of this market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $3K
- Total Volume
- $628
- 24h Volume
- $628
- Open Interest
- $528
Market outcomes
| Ass | 73% YES | 27% NO |
| Left | 90% YES | 11% NO |
| Hegemony | 10% YES | 90% NO |
| Apple | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| Hantavirus | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Table | 77% YES | 23% NO |
| Coffee | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Elephant | 20% YES | 81% NO |
Market context
The Joe Rogan Experience releases episodes irregularly across its YouTube channel, with no fixed publication schedule. The market concerns whether a specific term will be mentioned during whichever episode drops first in the week of 11–17 May 2026. The 73% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects traders' assessment that the term is either commonly discussed on the podcast or likely to arise given current events or guest selection during that particular week.
Historical resolution patterns for JRE episode markets show high variance depending on the term's specificity and cultural relevance. Broad terms—particularly those relating to ongoing news cycles, technology, or entertainment industry developments—typically settle YES at probabilities between 65–85%, whilst niche or technical terms settle lower. The current 73% sits in the moderate-to-high range, suggesting the market views the term as reasonably probable but not inevitable. Polymarket's order book depth at this probability level indicates moderate trader conviction rather than consensus certainty.
Traders should monitor JRE's upload schedule closely, as episode timing remains unpredictable. Guest announcements, if published before the settlement window closes on 17 May, could materially shift the probability depending on the guest's known discussion patterns. Current news cycles and trending topics in May 2026 will likely influence both guest selection and conversational direction. The market's resolution depends entirely on the episode's actual content, with no discretionary interpretation required—any mention of the term, regardless of context, triggers a YES settlement.
Wikipedia Context
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Saudi First Division LeagueThe Saudi First Division League (FDL), also known as the Yelo League for sponsorship reasons, is a professional association football league in Saudi Arabia and serves as the second tier of the Saudi football league system. It ranks directly below the Saudi Pro League and above the Saudi Second Division League.
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Sam FirstenbergSam Firstenberg is an Israeli-American film director, screenwriter and film producer.
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SA First
SA First, also known as South Australia First, was a South Australian political party formed in 1999 by dissident Labor MP Terry Cameron. The party contested the 2002 state election but failed to elect any candidates to the Parliament of South Australia.
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Kirsten SandKirsten Eleonore Helena Sand was a Norwegian architect. In 1919, she became the first woman to graduate with full technical competence in architecture from the Norwegian Institute of Technology (NTH). Until the Second World War, she ran her own practice in Oslo where she designed private homes. After the war, she contributed to reconstruction projects, espec
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "What will be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (May 11)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$628 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for podcast contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $628 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "What will be said on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (May 11)"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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