Trade: Lowest temperature in Paris on May 14?

Market context

This market resolves based on the lowest temperature recorded at Paris-Le Bourget Airport on 14 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's historical records for the station. Traders are currently pricing the YES outcome at 1% implied probability via the Polymarket order book, suggesting minimal conviction that temperatures will fall into the specified range on this particular date.

May in the Paris region typically sees minimum temperatures between 8–12°C, though late spring cold snaps remain possible. Historical data from Le Bourget shows that temperatures below 5°C occur roughly once every five to ten years in mid-May, making such outcomes statistically uncommon but not unprecedented. The 1% pricing reflects the base rarity of extreme cold during this period, though the exact temperature threshold for YES resolution would determine whether this probability is appropriately calibrated.

Traders should monitor European weather pattern forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals of Arctic air masses pushing southward into continental Europe. The North Atlantic Oscillation and broader atmospheric circulation patterns typically become clearer two to three weeks before the settlement date. Any significant weather model shifts indicating anomalous cold would likely shift the order book substantially, though current pricing suggests the market views such scenarios as decidedly unlikely for this specific date and location.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Lowest temperature in Paris on May 14?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$119 in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for paris contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $119 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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