Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the United States on May 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the United States (Parcl_ID: 5826765). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 2000, which is the median square footage for homes in the US. Parcl is set to publish this data on May 31, 2026.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <432k | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 434 - 436k | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| 438 - 440k | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| 442 - 445k | 14% YES | 87% NO |
| 432 - 434k | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| 436 - 438k | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| 440 - 442k | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| >445k | 11% YES | 89% NO |
The Parcl Labs Sales Price Index will publish its calculation of median US home value on 31 May 2026, derived from price-per-square-foot data multiplied by 2,000 square feet. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES resolution at 9%, implying traders expect the median to fall below a specific bracket threshold—likely in the $380,000–$400,000 range based on historical settlement conventions. This probability reflects expectations for home price movements over the next eighteen months from the market's current date.
US median home values have exhibited cyclical patterns tied to mortgage rates, inventory levels, and economic growth. From 2020 to 2022, median values surged roughly 40% as pandemic-driven demand met constrained supply; since mid-2022, appreciation has moderated significantly as Federal Reserve rate hikes dampened buyer activity. The current 9% probability suggests the order book anticipates continued appreciation or stability rather than a sharp decline, positioning the median above the lower bracket boundary. Historical precedent shows median values rarely contract year-on-year except during severe recessions, making downside scenarios less probable in baseline forecasts.
Traders should monitor Federal Reserve policy announcements through 2025–2026, particularly any shifts in rate trajectory that would affect mortgage affordability. Housing starts data, existing home sales figures, and inventory reports from the National Association of Realtors provide monthly signals on market direction. Parcl's own index updates will offer real-time price-per-square-foot readings as the settlement date approaches, allowing traders to adjust positions based on actual price momentum rather than relying solely on macroeconomic forecasts.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will the median home value in the US be on May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$60 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for parcl contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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