Parcl

Trade: What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on June 30?

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on June 30, 2026.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$497
Total Volume
—
24h Volume
—
Open Interest
—
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Market outcomes

<$1.174M 26% YES75% NO
$1.174M - $1.188M 26% YES74% NO
$1.188M - $1.202M 26% YES74% NO
$1.202M - $1.216M 27% YES74% NO
$1.216M - $1.230M 27% YES74% NO
$1.230M - $1.244M 26% YES75% NO
>$1.244M 27% YES73% NO

Market context

The San Francisco Metro median home value on 30 June 2026 will be determined by Parcl Labs' Sales Price Index, converted to an absolute dollar figure using a standardised 1,700 square-foot median home size. The current order book on Polymarket prices a YES resolution (median value within the specified bracket) at 26% implied probability, reflecting substantial scepticism about the market reaching that threshold by mid-2026.

San Francisco's housing market has demonstrated considerable volatility since 2020, with median values fluctuating between roughly $1.3m and $1.5m depending on market cycle phase. The 2022–2023 correction saw prices decline approximately 15–20% from pandemic peaks, whilst 2024 showed tentative stabilisation. Historical precedent suggests the Bay Area requires sustained economic momentum and favourable financing conditions to achieve significant appreciation within an 18-month window. The current 26% probability implies traders expect either continued lateral movement or modest depreciation through mid-2026.

Key catalysts include Federal Reserve policy trajectory—rate decisions through 2025 will substantially influence mortgage availability and buyer capacity. Technology sector employment trends remain critical, given the region's concentration in that industry; recent earnings reports from major firms and venture capital funding patterns will signal demand elasticity. Additionally, new housing supply coming online in the broader Bay Area could exert downward pressure on median values. Parcl's index updates regularly, allowing traders to track price-per-square-foot movements as settlement approaches.

Wikipedia Context

  • Real estate appraisal

    Real estate appraisal, home appraisal, property valuation or land valuation is the process of assessing the value of real property. The appraisal is conducted by a licensed appraiser. Real estate transactions often require appraisals to ensure fairness, accuracy, and financial security for all parties involved.

  • Median voter theorem

    In political science and social choice, Black's median voter theorem says that if voters and candidates are distributed along a one-dimensional political spectrum, any Condorcet consistent voting method will elect the candidate preferred by the median voter. The median voter theorem thus shows that under a realistic model of voter behavior, Arrow's theorem d

  • Median household income in Australia and New Zealand
    Median household income in Australia and New Zealand

    Median household income is commonly used to measure the relative prosperity of populations in different geographical locations. It divides households into two equal segments with the first half of households earning less than the median household income and the other half earning more.

  • Medical home

    The medical home, also known as the patient-centered medical home or primary care medical home (PCMH), is a team-based health care delivery model led by a health care provider to provide comprehensive and continuous medical care to patients with a goal to obtain maximal health outcomes. It is described as "an approach to providing comprehensive primary care

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$0 in lifetime turnover and $497 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for parcl contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on June 30?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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