Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑5k | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| ↑1k | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑2k | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| ↑500 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↑10k | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| ↑7.5k | 13% YES | 88% NO |
| ↑12.5k | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| ↑3k | 63% YES | 38% NO |
Measles incidence in the United States during 2026 will depend on vaccination coverage rates, importation of cases from abroad, and outbreak dynamics in pockets of lower immunisation. The CDC currently tracks confirmed cases through laboratory confirmation and epidemiological investigation. The 12% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects trader assessment that measles will remain largely controlled, consistent with recent U.S. epidemiology where annual case counts have typically ranged from dozens to low hundreds outside major outbreak years.
Historical context matters considerably for calibrating this probability. The U.S. experienced 1,123 confirmed measles cases in 2019, the highest annual total in 27 years, driven largely by importation and transmission in under-vaccinated communities. Since then, case counts have declined substantially: 2022 saw 127 cases, and 2023 saw 58 cases. Vaccination coverage for the MMR vaccine remains above 90% nationally, though pockets of lower coverage exist in certain counties and religious communities. The current order book pricing suggests traders expect 2026 to track closer to recent low-incidence years than to 2019 levels.
Traders should monitor several catalysts: CDC vaccination coverage surveys, which typically release annual data in autumn; any large measles outbreaks in Europe or other developed nations that might signal importation risk; and changes in vaccination exemption policies at state level. The World Health Organisation's measles surveillance reports, released quarterly, provide early warning of global circulation patterns. Domestic travel patterns and international tourism flows during 2026 will also influence importation probability, though these remain difficult to predict precisely.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7.7M in lifetime turnover and $18K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for pandemics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $888 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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