Trade: Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for June 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $82K
- Total Volume
- $10K
- 24h Volume
- $2K
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| 0-10 | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| 10-20 | 16% YES | 85% NO |
| 20-40 | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| 40-60 | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| 60+ | 8% YES | 92% NO |
Market context
The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade, making daily transit volumes a sensitive indicator of regional stability and energy flows. This market tracks the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals as reported by IMF Portwatch, settling on the finalised figure for 30 June 2026. The metric encompasses container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker vessels—a broad measure of commercial maritime activity through one of the world's most strategically important chokepoints.
Historical transit data shows the Strait typically processes 80–120 vessel arrivals daily, with notable disruptions during periods of heightened US–Iran tensions or regional military incidents. The 67% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects expectations that June 2026 transit volumes will remain within a specific range bracket, though the exact threshold remains dependent on how IMF Portwatch finalises its data methodology. Comparable episodes—including the 2019 tanker attacks and 2022 drone incidents—saw temporary dips of 10–15% in transit calls before recovery, suggesting the market is pricing in a baseline scenario of continued albeit potentially volatile passage.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding US sanctions policy, Iranian nuclear negotiations, and any Houthi or regional military activity that could disrupt shipping lanes. Seasonal patterns also matter: June typically sees elevated summer demand for refined products and crude flows. The settlement depends entirely on IMF Portwatch's finalised 7-day average, making data release timing and methodology changes material to resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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ABG ShipyardABG Shipyard Limited is a shipbuilding company headquartered in Mumbai, Maharashtra, India.
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ABG Shipyard loan fraud
ABG Shipyard loan fraud is a major financial scandal in India involving the diversion of bank loans and money laundering by the promoters of ABG Shipyard. They are accused of defrauding a consortium of 28 banks of ₹22,842 crore (US$2.4 billion) between April 2012 and July 2017.
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A-Ships Management
A-Ships Management SA formerly known as is a Greek shipping company, owned by the Arkoumanis family. It operates ferry services between Italy, Albania and Greece.
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AirshipAn airship, dirigible balloon or dirigible is a type of aerostat (lighter-than-air) aircraft that can navigate through the air flying under its own power. Aerostats use buoyancy from a lifting gas that is less dense than the surrounding air to achieve the lift needed to stay airborne.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$10K in lifetime turnover and $82K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for oil contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of June?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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