Trade: Netflix (NFLX) closes week of Jun 1 at 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Netflix (NFLX) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $32K
- Total Volume
- $4K
- 24h Volume
- $145
- Open Interest
- $4K
Market outcomes
| <$40 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $40-$50 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $50-$60 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $60-$70 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| $70-$80 | 28% YES | 72% NO |
| $80-$90 | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| $90-$100 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| $100-$110 | 9% YES | 91% NO |
Market context
Netflix's closing price on Friday, 6 June 2025 will determine this market's resolution. The 0% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific price bracket or minimal liquidity at current spreads, making the market susceptible to significant repricing as the settlement window approaches.
Historical volatility in NFLX has ranged considerably depending on earnings cycles and content release schedules. Over the past two years, weekly closes have typically moved within 3–5% bands, though larger swings occur around quarterly earnings announcements or major subscriber guidance updates. The current probability distribution across price brackets will sharpen as we approach early June, particularly if Netflix releases material guidance or reports user metrics in late May. Comparable tech stocks show similar sensitivity to streaming competition metrics and advertising revenue trends.
Key catalysts to monitor include any Netflix earnings call or investor updates scheduled before the settlement date, changes in competitive positioning from rivals including Disney+ and Amazon Prime Video, and broader market movements affecting growth-stock valuations. Recent macroeconomic data on consumer spending and advertising demand will also influence positioning. Traders should track Netflix's official investor relations announcements and SEC filings for any material developments that could shift consensus price expectations ahead of the week of 1 June.
Wikipedia Context
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StreamzStreamz, is a Flemish language Belgian OTT streaming platform, a joint venture between DPG Media and Telenet Group, which had a soft launch on 1 September 2020 and an official launch on 14 September 2020. The streaming service offers Flemish series for a fee, such as its own Streamz Originals and series from VRT, DPG Media, Play Media, both existing series a
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Netflix (NFLX) closes week of Jun 1 at 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$4K in lifetime turnover and $32K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nflx contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $145 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NFLX/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Netflix (NFLX) closes week of Jun 1 at 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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