Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the AFC North division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Cleveland Browns | 12% YES | 89% NO |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| Baltimore Ravens | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Other | — | |
The AFC North division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season will be determined by the team with the best record across 17 regular season games. The division comprises the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, and Cincinnati Bengals. Settlement occurs on 4 January 2027, with the market resolving to "Other" only if the season is cancelled or no champion is declared by the specified deadline. Current order book pricing implies a 14% probability for this outcome, reflecting the aggregated positions of traders on Polymarket.
Historical context shows the AFC North has been dominated by two franchises: Baltimore won five divisional titles between 2006 and 2019, whilst Pittsburgh claimed seven between 1992 and 2020. Cincinnati's sole recent championship came in 2021, breaking a 33-year drought. The division's competitive structure means any team can realistically contend, though sustained success requires consistent quarterback play and roster stability. The current 14% probability suggests traders view this as a moderately uncertain outcome, typical for a four-team division where no single franchise has overwhelming favourites status.
Key catalysts include preseason performance metrics, injury developments during training camp, and any significant roster transactions through the 2026 offseason. Quarterback health remains paramount—Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, Pittsburgh's situation at the position, and Cincinnati's Joe Burrow trajectory will shape divisional odds substantially. Draft outcomes and free agency signings announced between now and March 2026 will provide material information for probability reassessment. Traders should monitor official NFL announcements regarding schedule confirmation and any regulatory changes affecting the 2026 season structure.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Pro Football: AFC North Champion" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nfl contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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