Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the next team Tua Tagovailoa officially joins by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If Tua Tagovailoa does not officially join a new team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Miami Dolphins”. If Tua Tagovailoa joins a team that is not listed, this market will resolve to “Other”. If Tua Tagovailoa retires, or is not under contract with any professional team by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. An official signing or trade announcement prior to the market’s close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Atlanta Falcons | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Buffalo Bills | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Chicago Bears | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cleveland Browns | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Denver Broncos | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Green Bay Packers | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Houston Texans | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Tua Tagovailoa's contract status with the Miami Dolphins extends through the 2026 season, making his free agency destination uncertain for the 2026–27 campaign. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability that he will remain with Miami, suggesting traders assess the likelihood of his departure as negligible. This pricing assumes either contract renewal with the Dolphins or no alternative team acquiring him by the August 31, 2026 deadline, at which point the market resolves to Miami by default.
Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison, as franchise quarterbacks rarely hit true free agency. Similar cases—such as Kirk Cousins' 2018 departure from Washington or Jalen Hurts' extension with Philadelphia—show that elite signal-callers typically either secure long-term deals with their current organisation or become trade targets rather than free agents. Tagovailoa's injury history and inconsistent performance metrics create uncertainty about his market value, which may explain why traders have priced in Miami retention so heavily despite two years of potential developments.
Catalysts for movement include contract negotiations between Tagovailoa and the Dolphins throughout 2025 and early 2026, the NFL draft and free agency periods in spring 2026, and any significant injury or performance decline. Recent reporting from ESPN and NFL Network will signal whether Miami intends to commit long-term or explore alternatives. Trades remain possible if the Dolphins decide to reset at the position, though the default resolution mechanism means traders holding Miami positions face minimal downside risk.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Where will Tua Tagovailoa play in 2026-27?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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