Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first New Zealand government formed after the 2026 New Zealand general election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the first government is officially confirmed following the appointment of the Prime Minister and ministers by the Governor-General after the 2026 New Zealand general election, with ministers appointed under non-caretaker circumstances. A party will only be considered part of the government if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Labour Party | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| ACT New Zealand | 68% YES | 33% NO |
| Te Pāti Māori | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| National Party | 59% YES | 41% NO |
| Green Party | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| New Zealand First Party | 68% YES | 32% NO |
New Zealand will hold a general election on 7 November 2026. The market resolves "Yes" if the specified party forms part of the first government after that date, meaning it either wins sufficient seats to govern alone or enters a coalition arrangement with other parties. The 46% implied probability reflects current order-book positioning on Polymarket, where traders are pricing the likelihood of this particular party's inclusion in the next administration.
New Zealand's three-term electoral cycle has produced varied coalition outcomes. The 2020 election delivered Labour an outright majority under Jacinda Ardern, a rare occurrence; the 2017 election required Labour to form a coalition with the Greens and New Zealand First; and the 2014 election saw the National Party govern with support from smaller parties. These precedents show that coalition necessity and partner selection depend heavily on seat distribution, meaning parties polling at 5–15% often hold disproportionate negotiating power. Current polling will shift considerably between now and November 2026, affecting both major-party viability and minor-party kingmaker status.
Traders should monitor quarterly polling releases, leadership changes, and policy announcements that shift voter preferences. The timing of the election campaign proper—typically four weeks before polling day—will crystallise voter intentions. Coalition negotiations occur post-election, sometimes taking weeks; the formal appointment of ministers under non-caretaker circumstances marks the resolution trigger. Any significant economic data, legislative outcomes from the current Parliament, or scandals affecting party leadership could materially alter the probability of specific parties entering government.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which parties will be part of the next government of New Zealand?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$446 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for new zealand election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $15 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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