Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Other | — | |
| Chris Hipkins | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Nicola Willis | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| David Seymour | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person E | — | |
| Person G | — | |
New Zealand's general election is scheduled for 7 November 2026, with the next Prime Minister to be determined by the outcome and subsequent coalition negotiations. The market settles on the individual officially appointed by the Governor-General, excluding any interim caretaker arrangements. Current pricing has not yet formed on Polymarket's order book, meaning the initial liquidity and implied probabilities will emerge as traders begin positioning ahead of the election campaign proper.
Historical precedent suggests New Zealand's electoral outcomes remain genuinely competitive. The 2020 election delivered Jacinda Ardern's Labour a rare outright majority, but the 2017 election required coalition negotiation between Labour and the Greens with New Zealand First's support. The 2008 and 2014 elections saw National-led governments form coalitions with smaller parties. These patterns indicate that while major parties (Labour and National) dominate, the final Prime Minister depends on both the party vote distribution and post-election coalition arithmetic, making outright prediction difficult until polling tightens substantially.
Traders should monitor Labour's performance under current leadership, National's policy positioning, and minor party polling trajectories throughout 2025 and into 2026. The campaign period itself—typically four to six weeks before election day—historically generates material shifts in voter intention. Coalition negotiations following the election could extend several weeks, creating uncertainty about timing of the Governor-General's appointment. Economic conditions, particularly inflation and employment figures, will likely influence voter sentiment in the months preceding November 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for new zealand election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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