Trade: What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $1K
- Total Volume
- $52
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $99
Market outcomes
| <$23,500 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| $25,000-$26,500 | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| $28,500-$30,500 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| $33,000-$36,000 | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| $23,500-$25,000 | 40% YES | 61% NO |
| $26,500-$28,500 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| $30,500-$33,000 | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| >$36,000 | 17% YES | 83% NO |
Market context
The Nasdaq 100 will close out 2026 at some level, and this market settles on that final official closing price on the last trading day of December. The crowd currently prices a 51% probability for the affirmative outcome, suggesting near-parity across the available brackets on Polymarket's order book. That even split reflects genuine uncertainty about where large-cap technology and growth equities will trade after a full year of macro developments, earnings cycles, and Fed policy adjustments.
Historical precedent matters here. The Nasdaq 100 has exhibited volatility clustering around year-end, with December closes often influenced by portfolio rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting, and positioning ahead of fresh calendar years. Over the past decade, the index has closed December sessions ranging from roughly 7,000 to 20,000, depending on the year's trajectory. The current probability distribution suggests traders are hedging against both sustained strength in artificial intelligence-adjacent equities and potential headwinds from rate expectations or geopolitical friction.
Catalysts through 2026 will centre on Federal Reserve communications, corporate earnings guidance, and technology sector earnings surprises. The December settlement window captures the full year's macro picture—inflation data, labour market reports, and any significant policy shifts will all feed into final positioning. Traders should monitor Q4 2026 earnings announcements from mega-cap tech firms, any shifts in Treasury yields, and statements from Fed officials in autumn and early December, as these typically drive year-end repricing in growth-heavy indices.
Wikipedia Context
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Nasdaq-100Nasdaq-100 (NDX) is a stock market index made up of equity securities issued by 100 of the largest non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is a modified capitalization-weighted index. The stocks' weights in the index are based on their market capitalizations, with certain rules capping the influence of the largest components. It is li
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Miami Open (tennis)The Miami Open is an annual professional tennis tournament held in Miami Gardens, Florida, United States. It is played on outdoor hardcourts at the Hard Rock Stadium, and is held in late March and early April. The tournament is part of the ATP 1000 events on the ATP Tour and part of the WTA 1000 events on the WTA Tour, and is currently called "Miami Open pre
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$52 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ndx contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "What will Nasdaq 100 (NDX) close at in December?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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