Resolution criteria on PolyGram: In the upcoming NBA game between Knicks and Spurs, scheduled for 2026-06-04 at 2026-06-04 00:30:00+00: This event will resolve to the player who scores the first point of the game (inclusive of free throws), as recorded in the official NBA play-by-play. If no listed player scores the first point, the event resolves to "Other". If the game is postponed, this event remains open until the game is completed. If the game is canceled with no make-up, or the outcome cannot be determined from official sources, this neg-risk event resolves to "Other".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Josh Hart | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Mitchell Robinson | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Kelly Olynyk | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Miles McBride | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Guerschon Yabusele | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Jordan Clarkson | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Landry Shamet | 47% YES | 54% NO |
| Devin Vassell | 47% YES | 54% NO |
The Knicks and Spurs will face off on 4 June 2026, with this market tracking which player scores the opening point of the contest. The settlement window closes at 00:30 UTC on 4 June, meaning the market will resolve based on official NBA play-by-play data once the game concludes. The 47% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests near-parity between the listed player and the "Other" category, indicating substantial uncertainty about which specific player breaks the scoreline first.
First-point markets typically exhibit wide probability distributions across eligible scorers, as the outcome depends on early-game possession, offensive sets, and which players take initial shots. Historical data shows that opening points are distributed fairly evenly amongst starting lineups, though teams' offensive schemes and player roles create measurable patterns. The Knicks and Spurs' respective starting five compositions, bench rotation depth, and recent offensive tendencies will shape how traders price individual player probabilities relative to the aggregate "Other" bucket.
Traders should monitor roster updates and injury reports through to tip-off, particularly any late changes to starting lineups that would alter early-possession assignments. The Spurs' 2025–26 season trajectory and the Knicks' current form will inform typical pace-of-play and opening offensive patterns. Game-day announcements regarding starting players or tactical adjustments could shift probabilities meaningfully, as could any schedule changes affecting rest and preparation time for either squad.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.nba.com/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Knicks @ Spurs: Who will score the first point?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8 in lifetime turnover and $138 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for nba contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $8 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.nba.com/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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