Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song by the listed artist is in the #1 spot on the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart for any day of the relevant month, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not qualify to resolve the featured artist to "Yes". The resolution source for this market will be Spotify, specifically the Spotify Top 50 - Global chart, which can be found here: https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZEVXbMDoHDwVN2tF.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| The Weeknd | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Beyonce | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Ariana Grande | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| Gracie Abrams | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Taylor Swift | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| Bad Bunny | 29% YES | 71% NO |
| Noah Kahan | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Don Toliver | 30% YES | 70% NO |
The question centres on whether any artist will secure the #1 position on Spotify's Global Top 50 chart during May 2026. The resolution mechanism is straightforward: a single day with an artist's track at the top spot triggers a "Yes" outcome. The current orderbook implies a 49% probability, suggesting near-parity between traders expecting chart dominance and those anticipating fragmentation across the top position throughout the month.
Historical precedent shows that Spotify's global chart typically cycles through 3–5 distinct #1 tracks monthly, with established artists and major label releases dominating the top spot. Artists with substantial streaming infrastructure—those releasing during peak promotional windows or benefiting from algorithmic playlist placement—have historically secured at least one day at #1. The 49% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about May's release calendar and the competitive intensity of that specific month. Comparable months in 2024–2025 saw between 60–75% likelihood of any given artist reaching #1, suggesting traders may be pricing in either a crowded release schedule or reduced promotional spending in May 2026.
Catalysts to monitor include major label release announcements for April–May 2026, which typically emerge 4–6 weeks prior. Artist tour schedules and festival appearances can amplify streaming momentum. Chart performance in April will signal momentum heading into May, whilst surprise drops or delayed releases could shift probabilities substantially. Spotify's algorithmic weighting occasionally shifts with platform updates, though such changes are infrequent and rarely dramatic enough to alter chart outcomes materially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which artists will have #1 hits in May?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for music contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $73 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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