Trade: Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of May 23
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of May 23, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $3K
- Total Volume
- $1K
- 24h Volume
- $1K
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley | 96% YES | 4% NO |
| I Can't Love You Anymore - Ella Langley, Morgan Wallen | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| The Great Divide - Noah Kahan | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Be Her - Ella Langley | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Man I Need - Olivia Dean | 21% YES | 80% NO |
| Doors - Noah Kahan | 32% YES | 68% NO |
| Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| Beauty and a Beat - Justin Bieber, Nicki Minaj | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Market context
The Billboard Hot 100 chart for the week of 23 May 2026 will be published on the preceding Tuesday, reflecting streaming, radio, and sales data from the Friday-Thursday period ending 21 May. The current order book on Polymarket prices this market at 86% implied probability for a definitive #1 song being published, suggesting traders assess a low likelihood of chart publication failure or extraordinary disruption during that specific week.
Historical precedent indicates Billboard maintains consistent publication schedules except during major holidays or unforeseen operational disruptions. The chart has published reliably through pandemic periods and other logistical challenges in recent years, establishing a baseline expectation that publication will occur as scheduled. Markets resolving to "Other" remain rare, typically occurring only when Billboard itself announces delays or suspends operations—events that would require explicit public communication well in advance.
Traders should monitor Billboard's official announcements regarding any May 2026 schedule adjustments, particularly around Memorial Day (25 May in the United States), which occasionally triggers modified chart release dates. Industry consolidation among major labels and streaming platform algorithm updates in early 2026 could influence chart volatility, though such factors affect song rankings rather than publication likelihood. The settlement window closes 19 May, providing a five-day buffer before the expected Tuesday publication, allowing traders to adjust positions based on any last-minute operational notices from Billboard's parent company Penske Media.
Wikipedia Context
-
Billboard Hot 100The Billboard Hot 100, also known as simply the Hot 100, is the music industry standard record chart in the United States for songs, published weekly by Billboard magazine. Chart rankings are based on sales, online streaming, and radio airplay in the U.S.
-
List of Billboard Hot 100 chart achievements and milestonesThe Billboard Hot 100 is a singles chart published by Billboard that measures the most popular singles in the United States, based on sales, online streaming, and radio airplay. Throughout the history of the Hot 100 and its predecessor charts, many songs have set records for longevity, popularity, or number of hit singles by an individual artist.
-
Digital Song Sales
The Digital Song Sales ranks the most downloaded songs in the United States, as compiled by Luminate and published by Billboard magazine. Although it originally started tracking song sales the week of October 30, 2004, it officially debuted in the issue dated January 22, 2005, and merged all versions of a song sold from digital music distributors. Its data w
-
Radio Songs (chart)
The Radio Songs chart is released weekly by Billboard magazine and measures the airplay of songs being played on radio stations throughout the United States across all musical genres. It is one of the three components, along with sales and streaming activity, that determine the chart positions of songs on the Billboard Hot 100.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of May 23" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for music contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of May 23"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: