Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend? | 7% YES | 93% NO |
Two major films release on the same date in December 2026: Marvel's Avengers: Doomsday and Denis Villeneuve's Dune: Part Three. The market is pricing the probability that Dune 3 will exceed Doomsday's domestic opening weekend gross at just 7%, reflecting the current order book on Polymarket. This implies traders are assigning roughly 93% confidence to the Marvel tentpole outperforming the science-fiction epic across the three-day opening period (18–20 December).
Historical precedent suggests this pricing may underestimate Dune's chances. The original Dune (2021) opened to $40.1 million domestically despite pandemic conditions and simultaneous HBO Max release, whilst Dune: Part Two (2024) grossed $82.1 million in its opening weekend—outpacing most Marvel releases that year. Conversely, recent Avengers ensemble films have shown variable performance: Avengers: Endgame (2019) opened to $357.1 million, but Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) managed $191.1 million. The 7% probability reflects confidence in Marvel's franchise strength, though same-day releases create genuine uncertainty around audience split.
Key variables include marketing spend allocation, critical reception in the preceding weeks, and whether either film faces production delays before release. Dune 3's box office trajectory will depend partly on international performance signals from earlier markets, which could shift domestic expectations. Any major casting announcements, trailer releases, or scheduling changes for either film would likely move the order book materially before the settlement window closes on 20 December 2026.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Dune 3 or Avengers: Doomsday gross more on their opening weekend?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$38K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 7%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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