Resolution criteria on PolyGram: "Euphoria: Season 3" is scheduled to air eight episodes weekly on Sundays at 9PM ET, beginning April 12. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified character dies during "Euphoria: Season 3". Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying death must show the specified character dead on screen, or otherwise that character’s death must clearly be stated to have occurred, even if offscreen (e.g., characters confirm their death in conversation, the funeral of a character occurs, etc.). If a death is reversed through a revival, resurrection, or reanimation that occurs after the character has died, that death will NOT qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Elliot | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Cal Jacobs | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| Cassie Howard | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Nate Jacobs | 68% YES | 32% NO |
| Rue Bennett | 64% YES | 36% NO |
| Lexi Howard | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| Faye | 14% YES | 86% NO |
| Jules Vaughn | 13% YES | 87% NO |
HBO's Euphoria will premiere its third season on 12 April 2026, with eight episodes airing weekly on Sundays at 9PM ET through the settlement window closing 31 May 2026. The market resolves affirmatively only if a character death is depicted on screen or explicitly confirmed through dialogue, funeral scenes, or other narrative confirmation within the season itself. The 4% implied probability currently priced on Polymarket's order book reflects low conviction that a major character will be killed off during these eight episodes.
Euphoria's first two seasons (2019–2022) established the show's willingness to depict character deaths, though sparingly. The series has primarily focused on psychological and emotional trauma rather than mortality as a narrative driver. Comparable HBO prestige dramas show variable patterns: The Leftovers killed major characters regularly, whilst True Detective and Mare of Easttown featured selective deaths tied to plot resolution. The current 4% probability suggests traders view Season 3 as unlikely to follow a high-mortality trajectory, positioning it closer to the show's established tone of survival and consequence rather than elimination.
Traders should monitor pre-release episode summaries and cast interviews from February through April 2026, which typically signal major plot developments. Variety and The Hollywood Reporter frequently publish detailed breakdowns ahead of HBO releases. The settlement window's 31 May close means only deaths occurring within the eight-episode run count; any deaths announced or depicted after that date fall outside resolution criteria. Production leaks or script details emerging before the 12 April premiere could substantially shift current odds.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will die in Euphoria: Season 3?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$167K in lifetime turnover and $22K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for movies contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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