Trade: Military action against Iran ends by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- —
- Total Volume
- $1.3M
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $536K
Market outcomes
| March 12 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 16 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 20 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 24 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 28 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 11 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 15 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 19 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The market concerns whether the United States or Israel will conduct air strikes, drone strikes, or missile attacks against Iranian territory or Iranian diplomatic facilities between now and 30 June 2026. The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects traders pricing in a near-certainty that at least one such strike will occur within the settlement window. This assessment follows the April 2024 Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel and subsequent Israeli retaliatory strikes, establishing a pattern of direct military escalation between the parties that had been largely absent in prior years.
Historical precedent suggests sustained periods without direct strikes remain possible despite elevated tensions. The 2015 nuclear agreement (JCPOA) created a roughly six-year window of no direct Israeli or American strikes on Iranian soil, despite ongoing proxy conflicts. However, the agreement's collapse in 2018 and subsequent years saw sporadic but limited strikes—notably the January 2020 US killing of Qasem Soleimani and the April 2024 Israeli response to Iranian missiles. The current probability reflects market participants viewing the post-2024 escalation cycle as fundamentally different from the pre-2015 or 2015–2018 periods.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding Iranian nuclear programme developments, particularly uranium enrichment levels and International Atomic Energy Agency inspections, as these have historically triggered Israeli threat assessments. Regional developments involving Houthi attacks on shipping, Hezbollah cross-border activity, and any new Iranian ballistic or drone tests could alter escalation calculus. US domestic political transitions and shifts in American Middle East policy will also shape the probability of direct American involvement through 2026.
Wikipedia Context
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Views on military action against Iran
Military action against Iran is often deemed a controversial topic. Proponents of a strike against Iran point to the threat presented by Iran's nuclear program as a casus belli. Many Israelis, and particularly hardline politicians such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, American neoconservatives, Iranian dissidents support military action to stop Iran's n
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Military Action Against Iraq (Parliamentary Approval) BillThe Military Action Against Iraq Bill was a private member's bill introduced into the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by Tam Dalyell under the Ten Minute Rule. It received its formal first reading on 26 January 1999. The bill sought to transfer the power to authorise military strikes against Iraq from the monarch to Parliament. The long title of the b
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Military action against Iran ends by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$1.3M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for middle east contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Military action against Iran ends by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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