Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for BTC/USDT has a final "Low" price below MicroStrategy’s reported “Avg BTC Cost” at any point between January 21, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
MicroStrategy has accumulated over 27,000 bitcoin through its corporate treasury strategy, with an average acquisition cost that fluctuates as the company makes periodic purchases. This market tests whether bitcoin's price will dip below MicroStrategy's reported average cost basis at any point during 2026, measured against one-minute candles on Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The resolution hinges on a single intraday low breaching that threshold, rather than a sustained price level.
The current 100% implied probability reflects the historical difficulty of bitcoin remaining above any given cost basis for an extended period. MicroStrategy's average buy price has typically ranged between $26,000 and $42,000 depending on purchase timing and market conditions. Given bitcoin's volatility profile—particularly intraday swings on Binance—the probability assigned suggests traders view a temporary dip below whatever average cost MicroStrategy reports as nearly inevitable over a full calendar year. Comparable treasury strategies by other firms have seen similar temporary breaches despite longer-term price appreciation.
Traders monitoring this market should track MicroStrategy's quarterly earnings announcements and bitcoin purchase disclosures, which establish the exact "Avg BTC Cost" figure used for settlement. The company typically announces major acquisitions via press release, with detailed cost bases appearing in SEC filings. Bitcoin's volatility in early 2026 will be critical; sustained price weakness or sharp intraday corrections could trigger resolution well before year-end. The Polymarket order book currently reflects consensus that avoiding any single-minute dip below that average throughout 2026 is exceptionally unlikely.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Bitcoin below MicroStrategy average buy price in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for microstrategy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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