Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. The New York City Rent Guidelines Board implements rent adjustments at 0.0 % for both one-year and two-year renewal leases for rent-stabilized apartments citywide by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The policy will be considered implemented only if a 0.0 % increases for both one-year and two-year renewal leases is in effect by the resolution date. An announced intention or proposed order not yet effective will not qualify. Orders that are blocked, enjoined, or otherwise prevented from taking effect by the deadline will not qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027? | 29% YES | 71% NO |
This market hinges on two sequential political and regulatory outcomes: Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic socialist state senator representing parts of Brooklyn and Queens, winning the 2025 NYC mayoral race, followed by the Rent Guidelines Board implementing a 0.0% rent freeze for both one-year and two-year stabilised leases by end of 2026. The resolution requires both conditions met and the freeze actually in effect—not merely proposed or announced. Current order book pricing implies 34% probability, reflecting meaningful uncertainty on both legs of the bet.
Mamdani's mayoral prospects remain uncertain despite his progressive base and rent-control advocacy. Incumbent Eric Adams faces potential legal challenges but retains institutional advantages, whilst other candidates including Kathryn Garcia and Curtis Sliwa command significant support. The Democratic primary, scheduled for June 2025, will clarify his viability. Historically, NYC mayoral races have favoured establishment-backed candidates; the last major upset was de Blasio in 2013, though conditions differed substantially. A Mamdani victory would represent a significant leftward shift.
Even if Mamdani wins, implementing a 0.0% freeze presents distinct obstacles. The Rent Guidelines Board comprises nine members appointed by the mayor and city council, with competing interests from tenant advocates, landlord representatives, and economists. Recent RGB decisions have oscillated between modest increases and freezes depending on housing market conditions and political pressure. Traders should monitor housing market data, inflation trends, and RGB composition changes through 2025–2026, as these will shape feasibility of a full freeze rather than the modest increases typically implemented.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Mamdani freeze NYC rents before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$257K in lifetime turnover and $14K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for mamdani contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $539 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 29%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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