Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ≤3.9% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4.1% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4.3% | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 4.5% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ≥4.7% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4.0% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4.2% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 4.4% | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Bureau of Labour Statistics will release the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for April 2026 on 8 May at 8:30 AM ET. This headline U-3 figure, measuring total unemployed as a percentage of the civilian labour force, serves as the primary barometer of labour market health and typically influences Federal Reserve policy expectations. The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in an extremely narrow or non-existent range of acceptable outcomes, reflecting either exceptional conviction about the April figure or minimal liquidity in the contract at present.
Historical context matters considerably here. The U-3 rate has fluctuated between roughly 3.4% and 4.3% throughout 2024 and early 2025, with seasonal adjustments typically producing modest monthly swings of 0.1–0.2 percentage points. The 0% probability implies the market is either anchored to a specific consensus forecast or the order book lacks sufficient depth to reflect genuine uncertainty. Comparable labour market releases have historically shown volatility around consensus estimates, particularly when economic data diverges from Fed expectations or when employment gains surprise significantly.
Traders should monitor weekly jobless claims data in the weeks preceding the release, as initial claims often correlate with headline employment figures. The Federal Funds futures market and any Fed communications between now and 8 May will shape expectations around monetary policy sensitivity to labour data. Additionally, any significant revisions to prior months' employment figures—announced alongside the April data—could shift market interpretation of underlying labour market momentum.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "April Unemployment Rate" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$90K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for macro indicators contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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