Resolution criteria on PolyGram: QatarEnergy, a Qatari state-owned petroleum company, announced on March 2 that it would halt production of liquefied natural gas (LNG) due to military strikes on its operating facilities (see: https://www.qatarenergy.qa/en/MediaCenter/Pages/newsdetails.aspx?ItemId=3892). This market will resolve to “Yes” if QatarEnergy resumes production of liquefied natural gas at QatarEnergy LNG production facilities in Qatar, or officially announces that such production has resumed or will resume, by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
QatarEnergy halted liquefied natural gas production following military strikes on its operating facilities in early March 2026. The state-owned company's announcement marked a significant disruption to global LNG supply, with Qatar accounting for roughly 20% of worldwide LNG exports. The resolution criteria require either resumed production or an official announcement of resumption by 31 May 2026—a fourteen-month window from the disruption event.
The 100% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects market confidence in resumption within this timeframe, though historical precedent offers mixed signals. The 2022 Freeport LNG facility fire in Texas took approximately nine months to restore to full capacity, whilst repairs following the 2017 Abqaiq attack on Saudi Aramco's crude processing facilities took several months. Qatar's LNG infrastructure represents decades of capital investment; complete abandonment would entail extraordinary economic costs. However, the military dimension introduces uncertainty absent from typical industrial accidents, as cessation could persist if security conditions deteriorate further.
Traders should monitor QatarEnergy's official statements regarding facility damage assessments and repair timelines, alongside regional security developments. International energy agencies including the International Energy Agency typically issue monthly reports on LNG supply disruptions. The company's capital expenditure announcements and any statements from Qatar's government regarding the military situation will serve as primary catalysts. Geopolitical escalation or de-escalation could materially shift the probability, though the current market pricing suggests traders assess resumption as highly probable within the settlement window.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$27K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for liquefied natural gas contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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