Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ferrari's total vehicle shipments (Shipments) for the first fiscal quarter of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If Ferrari's official earnings materials for Q1 2026 are released and total vehicle shipments are not included, this market will resolve to "No". If Ferrari does not release quarterly earnings materials for Q1 2026 by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 3,400 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 3,500 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 3,600 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 3,700 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Ferrari will report its first-quarter 2026 vehicle shipments in official earnings materials, with settlement contingent on whether total deliveries exceed a specified threshold. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability of "Yes," indicating market participants expect Ferrari to clear the threshold comfortably. This unanimous pricing suggests either a threshold set well below historical norms or exceptionally high confidence in Ferrari's Q1 performance.
Historical context matters considerably here. Ferrari delivered 14,146 vehicles in 2023 and 14,405 in 2024, averaging roughly 3,600 units per quarter. The manufacturer has demonstrated consistent quarterly output in the 3,000–3,800 unit range over recent years, with seasonal variation typically modest. Q1 tends to reflect steady-state production rather than seasonal peaks, making historical quarterly averages a reliable baseline for assessing whether any specified threshold represents a genuine test or a formality.
Traders should monitor Ferrari's production announcements and any supply-chain disruptions ahead of the Q1 2026 earnings release, scheduled for late April or early May 2026. Recent automotive sector volatility—including semiconductor constraints and labour negotiations—could affect output, though Ferrari's premium positioning typically insulates it from mass-market pressures. The settlement window closes 5 May 2026, allowing minimal time between earnings publication and final resolution. Any material deviation from historical quarterly volumes or unexpected disclosure gaps in official materials would be the primary catalysts for resolution uncertainty.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ferrari Shipments above __ in Q1?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$727 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for kpis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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