Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during May 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| <2 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| 4+ | 9% YES | 91% NO |
| 2-3 | 41% YES | 59% NO |
North Korea's missile testing cadence remains a central indicator of regime intentions and technical progress. The market settles on the number of distinct calendar days in May 2026 when the DPRK conducts launches of ballistic, cruise, or anti-ship missiles—a narrow definition excluding air defence systems and artillery. The current order book implies a 52% probability of at least one test day occurring during the month, reflecting genuine uncertainty about both operational tempo and political circumstances nine months forward.
Historical patterns show North Korea's testing frequency correlates with diplomatic cycles and seasonal military exercises. Between 2022 and 2024, the regime conducted missile tests on roughly 15–20 distinct days annually, with clustering around spring and autumn months when regional military drills intensify. The 2023 period saw elevated activity following US-South Korean joint exercises, whilst diplomatic engagement windows typically coincide with reduced testing. May specifically has hosted multiple test events in prior years, including the 2022 hypersonic missile series and 2024 intermediate-range launches, establishing it as a plausible testing month rather than an anomaly.
Traders should monitor announcements from Seoul's Joint Chiefs of Staff and US intelligence assessments regarding North Korean military readiness through early 2026. The regime's resource constraints, sanctions enforcement, and any shifts in US-DPRK diplomatic posturing will shape decisions on test scheduling. Regional military exercise calendars—particularly US-South Korean springtime drills—historically trigger North Korean responses. Technical setbacks or successes in prior months could accelerate or delay May activity, making intelligence assessments from February through April 2026 critical inputs for position adjustment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Number of North Korea Missile Tests in May 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for kim jong un contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $16 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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