Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Met Gala is scheduled for May 4, 2026. This year's theme is "Costume Art". This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kim Kardashian, Khloe Kardashian, Kourtney Kardashian, Kendall Jenner, and Kylie Jenner all attend the 2026 Met Gala. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The attendance of each listed individual need not be concurrent to qualify, so long as each is present during any part of the event. If the event is canceled or postponed beyond May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will all of the Kardashian sisters attend the Met Gala? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The 2026 Met Gala, themed "Costume Art", takes place on 4 May 2026. This market requires all five Kardashian-Jenner sisters—Kim, Khloe, Kourtney, Kendall, and Kylie—to attend for a "Yes" resolution. The current order book on Polymarket reflects 0% implied probability, suggesting traders assess the collective attendance of all five as highly unlikely within the settlement window.
Historical Met Gala attendance by the Kardashian-Jenner family shows inconsistent participation. Whilst Kim and Kylie have been regular attendees in recent years, Khloe's presence has been sporadic, and Kourtney has frequently declined invitations or skipped the event. Kendall's attendance has been more consistent as a model with established fashion industry ties. The requirement for simultaneous attendance across all five sisters represents a significantly higher bar than individual attendance patterns would suggest, which contextualises the zero probability currently priced into the order book.
Traders monitoring this market should track official Met Gala guest lists as the event approaches, typically announced in April. Schedule conflicts, particularly for Kylie and Kim's business commitments, represent material catalysts. Recent reporting on the sisters' professional priorities—including Kylie's cosmetics operations and Kim's legal and business ventures—indicates competing demands on their time. Any public statements from the sisters regarding Met Gala attendance, or announcements of conflicting events during early May 2026, would materially shift the probability assessment.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will all of the Kardashian sisters attend the Met Gala?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$266 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for kardashian contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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