Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Kevin Warsh | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Kevin Hassett | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Christopher Waller | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Bill Pulte | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Judy Shelton | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| David Malpass | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Howard Lutnick | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Individual T | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Donald Trump will return to the presidency in January 2025, and the Federal Reserve Chair position will become vacant when Jerome Powell's term expires in May 2026. The market currently reflects a 100% implied probability that Trump will nominate Powell for a second term, pricing this outcome at the top of Polymarket's order book. This probability is formed by traders bidding on the YES contract, which settles if Trump formally submits Powell's nomination to the Senate by the end of 2026.
Powell's reappointment would represent continuity in monetary policy leadership despite Trump's previous public criticism of the Fed Chair. Historical precedent suggests sitting Fed Chairs often secure renomination; all three predecessors to Powell (Yellen, Bernanke, and Greenspan) were renominated by their respective presidents. Trump's current economic advisors, including Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent, have signalled openness to Powell's continuation. However, Trump has historically shifted positions on personnel matters, and alternative candidates—including potential replacements from within the Fed or external figures—remain theoretically available until a formal nomination occurs.
Key catalysts for traders include Trump's public statements on Fed leadership following his inauguration, any significant economic or inflation developments that might shift his preference, and the timeline of formal nomination announcements. The Senate confirmation process typically begins several months before a term expires, meaning any nomination would likely occur during 2025 or early 2026. Market participants should monitor Federal Reserve communications and Treasury Department statements for signals regarding Powell's status.
The Trump administration proposed a number of nominees to appointed positions who were rejected by the Senate or withdrew voluntarily.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$617.3M in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for jerome powell contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $69 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 9 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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