Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee Jae-Myung meets with Sanae Takaichi between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM Korea Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Lee Jae-Myung and Sanae Takaichi are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| May 19 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| May 31 | 55% YES | 45% NO |
The market concerns whether Sanae Takaichi, Japan's digital minister and prominent Liberal Democratic Party figure, will meet in person with Lee Jae-Myung, the South Korean Democratic Party leader and two-time presidential candidate, before the end of May 2026. The 51% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether such a bilateral encounter will occur within the settlement window. Direct meetings between Japanese cabinet ministers and opposition figures from neighbouring countries are neither routine nor impossible; they typically occur during formal diplomatic visits, party delegations, or multilateral forums rather than as standalone bilateral events.
Historical precedent suggests such meetings depend heavily on political circumstances. Japanese ministers have met with South Korean opposition leaders during periods of diplomatic engagement or when opposition figures hold significant domestic standing. Lee's status as a major opposition figure and potential 2027 presidential contender could warrant high-level Japanese engagement, particularly if inter-Korean tensions shift or if regional security discussions intensify. Takaichi's portfolio in digital policy and her influence within the LDP make her a plausible counterpart for such discussions, though cabinet-level meetings with foreign opposition figures require careful diplomatic choreography.
The settlement window extends eighteen months, providing multiple potential catalysts: South Korean presidential elections in March 2027 could elevate Lee's profile and trigger diplomatic outreach; scheduled Japan-Korea bilateral forums or multilateral summits offer natural meeting opportunities; and any significant regional security developments could prompt high-level consultations. Traders should monitor announcements of official visits, party delegation schedules, and statements from either figure's office regarding cross-border engagement plans.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Takaichi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $756 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for japan contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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