Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31? | 16% YES | 85% NO |
Benjamin Netanyahu faces potential legal and political pressures ahead of Israel's October 2026 legislative elections. The former and current prime minister has led multiple governments and survived previous political crises, but his ongoing legal proceedings and the evolving coalition dynamics could influence his electoral calculus. The market prices a 17% probability that Netanyahu will announce a withdrawal from the election by 31 July 2026, reflecting scepticism about such an outcome given his historical resilience and demonstrated commitment to remaining in office despite adversity.
Netanyahu's political trajectory offers limited precedent for voluntary withdrawal. He has consistently fought through indictments, coalition collapses, and electoral defeats rather than stepping aside. Previous Israeli leaders have occasionally announced retirement plans, but these typically occurred after losing elections or facing imminent electoral defeat—conditions not yet present. The current pricing suggests the market views a mid-year dropout as unlikely absent a dramatic shift in circumstances, whether legal, health-related, or stemming from coalition collapse.
Traders should monitor developments in Netanyahu's ongoing legal cases, particularly any significant trial rulings or sentencing decisions that might alter his political calculations. Coalition stability will matter considerably; if current governing arrangements fracture substantially, pressure on Netanyahu could intensify. Official statements from Netanyahu's office regarding his electoral intentions, scheduled for closer to the election period, will serve as primary catalysts. International developments affecting Israel's security posture could also influence his decision-making, though such factors remain inherently unpredictable.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for israel election contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $855 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 16%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 July 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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