Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US or Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between the time of this market's creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US or Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| February 28 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| March 31 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| December 31 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| January 8 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| January 10 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| January 12 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| January 14 | — | |
| January 16 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The question centres on whether the United States or Israel will conduct aerial strikes—via drones, missiles, or bombs—against Iranian territory or official Iranian diplomatic facilities before the end of 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, suggesting traders are pricing this as a near-certainty rather than a contingent event. This extreme confidence warrants scrutiny given the settlement window spans roughly two years and encompasses multiple potential flashpoints.
Historical precedent shows direct strikes on Iranian soil remain rare despite decades of tension. Israel's April 2024 response to Iranian missile attacks involved limited strikes on military installations, whilst the US has avoided direct strikes on Iranian territory since 1988. The 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani by US drone strike was a significant escalation but did not trigger the broader conflict some anticipated. These cases suggest that whilst strikes occur, they typically follow specific provocations rather than materialising as inevitable outcomes, making the 100% probability difficult to reconcile with historical patterns of brinkmanship and restraint.
Traders should monitor developments around Iran's nuclear programme, particularly IAEA inspection reports and any announcements regarding uranium enrichment levels. Regional proxy activity—including Houthi attacks on shipping, Hezbollah operations, or Palestinian militant actions—could serve as catalysts. Israeli political transitions, US election outcomes in November 2024, and any Iranian military posturing near the Strait of Hormuz represent key variables. Recent reporting from Reuters and regional security analysts suggests heightened tensions but no imminent military operation, making the current pricing appear disconnected from base-rate expectations.
On 28 March 2026, the United States-Israel coalition launched airstrikes on the Iran University of Science and Technology (IUST), a scientific and engineering national university in Narmak, Tehran. The airstrike caused damage to six buildings, causing about 500 billion tomans in damages. No casualties were reported.
On 2 April, 2026, the Pasteur Institute of Iran was struck by multiple bombs as part of the 2026 Iran war. The attacks, conducted by the United States and Israel, destroyed several buildings and damaged equipment and laboratories, disrupting operations.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "US/Israel strikes Iran by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$19.8M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for iran contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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