Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the SC-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Candidate D | — | |
| Candidate E | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Candidate C | — | |
| Candidate F | — | |
| Candidate H | — | |
| Andrew Clough | 13% YES | 87% NO |
| Candidate A | — | |
South Carolina's 5th congressional district will hold a Democratic primary on 9 June 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat. The district, which spans portions of the Midlands region including parts of Richland and Lexington counties, has been represented by Republican Ralph Norman since 2017. The Democratic nominee will face Norman or another Republican challenger in the November 2026 general election. This market resolves to whichever candidate wins the Democratic primary vote, with any subsequent nominee replacement before election day not affecting the resolution.
South Carolina Democratic primaries typically see moderate turnout relative to general elections, with nomination contests heavily influenced by local party establishment backing and candidate fundraising capacity. Historical precedent suggests early frontrunners often consolidate support through endorsements from county party chairs and state legislators. The current absence of a live price reflects the early stage of candidate declarations; as of late 2024, no major Democratic candidate had formally announced for this seat, meaning the order book will likely develop substantially once credible candidates enter the race and begin building campaign infrastructure.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements throughout 2025 and early 2026, particularly endorsements from South Carolina Democratic Party leadership and sitting state legislators. Fundraising disclosures filed with the Federal Election Commission will provide concrete signals of campaign viability. The primary date of 9 June 2026 falls within South Carolina's standard election calendar, with candidate filing deadlines typically occurring several months prior. Any significant shifts in district demographics or unexpected retirements from the Republican side could influence Democratic recruitment efforts and candidate quality.
The South Carolina Democratic Party is the affiliate of the Democratic Party in the U.S. state of South Carolina. It is headquartered in Columbia, South Carolina.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "SC-05 Democratic Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for house primary contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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