Trade: Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 13?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) on May 13, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) on May 13, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $16
- Total Volume
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- 24h Volume
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- Open Interest
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Market outcomes
| Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 13? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Market context
Robinhood Markets will report its closing share price on 13 May 2026, with this market resolving based on whether that close exceeds the prior trading day's settlement. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50/50 split, indicating traders see genuine uncertainty around single-day directional movement for the retail brokerage platform.
Single-day equity moves for established brokerages typically hinge on earnings releases, regulatory announcements, or broader market sentiment shifts. Robinhood's historical volatility has been shaped by retail trading cycles, options market activity, and regulatory scrutiny—factors that can produce outsized daily swings. Comparable single-day resolution markets on liquid equities show that when no specific catalyst is scheduled, the implied probability gravitates toward equilibrium near 50%, reflecting the inherent randomness of daily price action. The current pricing suggests the order book perceives no material information advantage favouring either direction.
Traders monitoring this market should track any scheduled earnings announcements, SEC filings, or market-wide events occurring on or immediately before 13 May 2026. Robinhood's sensitivity to retail investor sentiment means unexpected volatility in meme stocks or options markets could drive directional pressure. Broader equity market conditions on the settlement date will also matter significantly; a strong or weak day for equities generally often correlates with retail brokerage performance. The resolution hinges on intraday and closing price dynamics rather than fundamental shifts, making this a technical rather than fundamental play.
Wikipedia Context
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Robin Hood and the Golden Arrow
"Robin Hood and the Golden Arrow" is an English folk song, part of the Robin Hood canon. It features an archery competition for a golden arrow that has long appeared in Robin Hood tales, but it is the oldest recorded one where Robin's disguise prevents his detection.
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Woody Woodpecker filmography
This is a list of animated cartoons that star Woody Woodpecker, who appeared in 204 cartoons during and after the Golden age of American animation. All the cartoons were produced by Walter Lantz Productions, and were distributed by Universal Pictures, United Artists and Universal International. Also listed are miscellaneous cartoons that feature Woody but a
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Norwood, South AustraliaNorwood is a suburb of Adelaide, about 4 km (2.5 mi) east of the Adelaide city centre. The suburb is in the City of Norwood Payneham & St Peters, whose predecessor was the oldest South Australian local government municipality.
Resolution source
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.HOOD%2FUSD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 13?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$0 in lifetime turnover and $16 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for hood contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 13?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 50%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is sourced from https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.HOOD%2FUSD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 13 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on May 13?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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