Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Ethereum hit May 4-10?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 2,600 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| ↓ 2,100 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| ↓ 1,800 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 3,100 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 2,700 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↓ 1,900 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↓ 2,300 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ↓ 1,700 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Ethereum's price movement during the week of 4–10 May 2026 will determine whether it reaches a specific target level during that seven-day window. The settlement hinges on whether spot prices on major exchanges touch that threshold at any point during the period, regardless of whether the price closes above or below it.
Historical precedent suggests that weekly price targets for established assets like Ethereum rarely materialise when implied probabilities sit at 2%. Over the past five years, Ethereum has experienced significant intraweek volatility, with moves exceeding 15–20% occurring roughly 8–12 times annually. However, the specific price point in question would require movement substantially beyond typical weekly ranges based on recent volatility metrics. Comparable prediction markets on major cryptocurrencies show that extreme outlier prices—those requiring moves beyond two standard deviations from current trading ranges—consistently trade at probabilities between 1–3%, reflecting the mathematical rarity of such events rather than fundamental catalysts.
Traders monitoring this market should track scheduled Ethereum network upgrades, regulatory announcements from major jurisdictions, and macroeconomic data releases during early May 2026. Cryptocurrency markets remain sensitive to Federal Reserve communications and broader risk-asset sentiment. Additionally, large derivative positions expiring or rolling over during that week could amplify intraweek volatility. The low probability reflects the market's assessment that absent extraordinary news, Ethereum's natural trading range will not extend to the specified target level.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Ethereum hit May 4-10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$171K in lifetime turnover and $164K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for hit price contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $78K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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