Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest is equal to or greater than the amount specified in the title at any point in 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is Artemis Analytics, using the Hyperliquid page available at: https://app.artemisanalytics.com/asset/Hyperliquid?tab=deep_dives The value used will be the “Total” open interest shown when hovering over a daily bar in the “HIP-3 DEXs by Open Interest” chart. A daily value is considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable public data sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $1B | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $5B | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| $6B | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| $9B | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| $10B | 21% YES | 79% NO |
| $2B | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $4B | 66% YES | 35% NO |
| $3B | 96% YES | 4% NO |
Hyperliquid's HIP-3 proposal represents a governance mechanism for the exchange's development roadmap. The market asks whether the perpetual futures protocol will achieve a specified open interest threshold at any point during 2026. Current Polymarket order book pricing reflects 100% implied probability, suggesting traders assess this outcome as virtually certain given Hyperliquid's trajectory and the timeframe involved.
Hyperliquid has demonstrated substantial growth in derivatives volume since its mainnet launch, with open interest expanding significantly as the platform attracted institutional and retail participation. Comparable decentralised perpetuals exchanges—including dYdX and GMX—have reached multi-billion dollar open interest levels during bull markets. The 100% probability reflects confidence that Hyperliquid will maintain sufficient ecosystem momentum and user adoption to reach whatever threshold the market title specifies, particularly given the extended 12-month window through 2026.
Key catalysts include announcements regarding HIP-3 implementation details, which would clarify governance changes and their market implications. Broader cryptocurrency market conditions will substantially influence perpetuals trading activity; a sustained bull market would accelerate open interest accumulation, whilst regulatory developments affecting derivatives trading could constrain growth. Artemis Analytics' HIP-3 DEXs by Open Interest chart will serve as the settlement source, with daily values finalised once subsequent data publishes. Traders should monitor Hyperliquid's official communications channels and on-chain metrics for signals regarding adoption rates and competitive positioning against other derivatives platforms.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest reach in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$30K in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for hip3 contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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