Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Solana price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the SOL/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream SOL/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Solana's price movement will be assessed across a five-minute window on 4 May 2026, from 14:35 to 14:40 ET, using Chainlink's SOL/USD data feed as the settlement source. The market resolves to "Up" if the closing price meets or exceeds the opening price within this interval; otherwise it settles "Down". The 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the extreme difficulty of predicting five-minute price movements with any statistical edge, a phenomenon consistent across micro-timeframe cryptocurrency markets where bid-ask spreads and latency effects typically dominate directional signals.
Historical analysis of five-minute SOL/USD candles demonstrates near-random walk behaviour absent major news releases or exchange outages. Comparable ultra-short-term prediction markets on other assets have consistently shown crowd probabilities clustering near 50% when genuine information asymmetries are absent, with deviations toward extreme probabilities (such as the current 0%) typically indicating either illiquidity on one side of the order book or a specific known catalyst expected within the settlement window.
Traders should monitor Solana ecosystem announcements scheduled for 4 May, alongside broader cryptocurrency market movements and any scheduled Chainlink data feed maintenance. Volatility clustering around US economic data releases or Federal Reserve communications could influence intraday price action, though the specificity of this five-minute window means only events occurring within or immediately preceding 14:35-14:40 ET would materially affect settlement. Chainlink's SOL/USD feed aggregates multiple price sources, so traders should verify whether the resolution source includes all major spot venues or a subset thereof.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Solana Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/sol-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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