Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Hyperliquid price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the HYPE/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream HYPE/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET | 0% YES | 100% NO |
This market settles based on whether the Hyperliquid (HYPE) token price recorded on Chainlink's HYPE/USD data stream moves upward or remains flat during a five-minute window on 5 May between 4:15AM and 4:20AM ET. The settlement relies exclusively on Chainlink's oracle feed rather than spot market prices, which can occasionally diverge due to data aggregation methodologies and update frequencies. The current orderbook on Polymarket reflects zero probability for an upward movement, indicating traders are pricing in either a decline or flat price action during this specific interval.
Five-minute price windows in cryptocurrency markets typically resolve downward or sideways roughly 60–70% of the time when examined across comparable assets, particularly during low-liquidity hours such as 4:15AM ET. The extreme confidence reflected in the current 0% YES probability suggests the market has priced in either technical resistance, recent downward momentum, or simply the statistical baseline that any given five-minute candle closes lower than it opens. Historical patterns show such tight time windows rarely attract significant buy-side pressure during off-peak trading hours.
Traders should monitor whether any announcements regarding Hyperliquid's protocol updates, exchange listings, or broader market movements occur in the hours preceding settlement. Chainlink's data feed updates depend on price deviation thresholds and heartbeat intervals, meaning the recorded price at 4:20AM ET may reflect the last valid update rather than a real-time snapshot. Volatility clustering and order book depth on major exchanges during this window will ultimately determine whether the Chainlink feed registers any meaningful upward tick.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 5, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/hype-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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