Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical. Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| March 31 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| January 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| May 31 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| April 30 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Discord's status page classifies incidents on a severity scale, with Critical (red) representing the highest tier—typically reserved for widespread service disruptions affecting core functionality. The market resolves affirmatively if Discord publishes any incident meeting this threshold before 30 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, suggesting traders assess a critical incident as virtually certain within the 18-month window.
Historical precedent indicates major communication platforms experience critical incidents at varying frequencies. Discord has had multiple documented outages since its 2015 launch, though the platform's infrastructure has matured considerably. Comparable services like Slack and Microsoft Teams have each experienced critical incidents roughly every 2–3 years on average, though definitions vary across providers. The 100% probability here likely reflects the mathematical reality that any sufficiently large distributed system faces non-zero risk of critical failure over an 18-month period, rather than specific intelligence about imminent Discord problems.
Traders monitoring this market should track Discord's infrastructure announcements, server capacity expansions, and any published incident reports from their status page. Recent platform growth—particularly in gaming and enterprise adoption—increases complexity and potential failure vectors. The resolution hinges on Discord's own classification methodology; the market terms specify that even incidents later downgraded from Critical status still count if originally published as such. This asymmetry may explain the extreme probability, as it captures both genuine critical outages and misclassified incidents subsequently corrected.
Critical discourse analysis (CDA) is an approach to the study of discourse that views language as a form of social practice. CDA combines critique of discourse with an explanation of how it figures in and contributes to the existing social reality, as a basis for action to change the social reality in various respects. Scholars working in the tradition of CD
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Critical Discord Incident by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for hack contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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