Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 versus the data points available for all other Mays on record. Note: If May 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 1st hottest | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| 2nd hottest | 31% YES | 69% NO |
| 3rd hottest | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| 4th or lower | 2% YES | 98% NO |
The market concerns whether May 2026 will rank among the three warmest May months in the instrumental temperature record when measured by NASA's Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index. Settlement depends on official data released after the month concludes, comparing the May 2026 anomaly against all prior May readings since records began in 1880. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 61% implied probability for YES, suggesting traders assess a moderately elevated but not overwhelming likelihood of this outcome.
Recent years have seen May temperatures consistently rank in the upper percentiles of the historical distribution. May 2023 and May 2024 both registered among the warmest on record, with 2024 setting a new May maximum. This clustering of extreme readings in consecutive years reflects the ongoing warming trend and elevated baseline temperatures from which anomalies are now measured. A trader evaluating the 61% probability should consider that the threshold for top-three placement has risen substantially; May 2026 would need to exceed most years from the pre-2020 era but faces competition from the recent record-setting cohort.
The key catalyst is the release of NASA's monthly temperature data, typically published in the first half of the following month. Traders should monitor preliminary atmospheric patterns and sea-surface temperature forecasts through May 2026, as El Niño or La Niña conditions materially influence global monthly anomalies. Any significant volcanic activity or solar forcing changes between now and May 2026 could alter baseline expectations. The settlement window closes 10 June 2026, providing a narrow window after NASA's data release for final position adjustments.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$65K in lifetime turnover and $62K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for global temp contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $658 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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