Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly announces, that the United States will officially refer to the Strait of Hormuz as the "Strait of Trump" or "Trump Strait" or any equivalent name which includes "Trump" by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The question concerns whether the Trump administration will officially rename the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world's most strategically critical waterways, through which roughly 20% of global oil passes—to include Trump's name by May 2026. This would represent an unprecedented departure from established international maritime nomenclature and would require either unilateral US action or coordination with other nations that recognise the waterway's official designation.
Trump has a documented history of affixing his name to properties and projects, though these have typically been commercial ventures or domestic infrastructure. The Strait of Hormuz's naming conventions are governed by international maritime law and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, with the current designation reflecting historical usage and regional consensus. No comparable instance exists of a sitting US president attempting to rename an international waterway after themselves, though Trump's first term included various unconventional geopolitical gestures. The 1% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial institutional and diplomatic barriers to such a move, alongside the absence of any public statements signalling intent in this direction.
Traders monitoring this market should track statements from Trump, his State Department, or senior administration officials regarding the Strait's designation, particularly during periods of heightened Iran tensions or broader Middle Eastern negotiations where symbolic gestures might feature. Recent reporting on US-Iran relations and regional shipping security would provide contextual signals, though no current catalyst appears imminent. The settlement window extends across 18 months, allowing time for unforeseen political developments, though the structural obstacles remain formidable.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$539K in lifetime turnover and $44K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 1%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: