Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Spain's Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, is removed from power for any length of time between December 2, 2025 and the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Prime Minister of Spain within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30, 2026 | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| December 31, 2026 | 16% YES | 84% NO |
Pedro Sánchez has led Spain's government since 2018, surviving multiple political crises through coalition management and strategic timing. The current market prices the probability of his removal between now and end-2026 at 3%, reflecting the Polymarket order book's assessment that his position remains relatively secure despite Spain's fractious parliamentary landscape. Sánchez governs through a coalition with smaller parties and relies on parliamentary abstentions from nationalist groups, a precarious arrangement that has weathered confidence votes and budget disputes.
Spanish prime ministers face removal through formal no-confidence votes, resignation under political pressure, or—rarely—incapacity. Mariano Rajoy's government fell to a no-confidence motion in 2018, demonstrating that removal is possible but requires coordinated opposition. Sánchez's Socialist Party (PSOE) remains the largest bloc, and rival conservative and far-right parties have not yet mustered sufficient coalition votes to unseat him. His previous survival of a 2023 no-confidence motion and subsequent government formation illustrates his tactical durability.
The settlement window captures a period when Spain faces regional elections, potential budget negotiations, and possible shifts in coalition dynamics. Traders should monitor announcements regarding Catalan independence movements, which have destabilised previous governments, and any deterioration in Sánchez's health or personal circumstances that might trigger voluntary resignation. Recent reporting on Spain's political stability suggests no imminent threat to his tenure, though the fragmented parliament means unexpected developments could alter calculations rapidly.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$126K in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $35 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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