Trade: Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

100% YES 0% NO

Opened 3 November 2025 · Settles 31 December 2026 · 8 comments

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, is removed from power for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Khamenei will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as Supreme Leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: —
Total Volume: $4.6M
24h Volume: —
Open Interest: $0

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Market outcomes

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

100% YES

0% NO

Market context

Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader since 1989, faces removal from power by the end of 2026 according to the current market pricing. The resolution criteria encompass resignation, detention, loss of position, or inability to fulfil his duties within the specified timeframe. Polymarket's order book currently reflects 100% implied probability for "Yes," suggesting traders assess near-certainty of Khamenei's departure during this window.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance for assessing this outcome. Iran's Supreme Leader position has proved remarkably durable; Khamenei has consolidated power through control of the Revolutionary Guards, judiciary, and state media across three decades. The only comparable transition occurred in 1989 when Ayatollah Khomeini died in office after fourteen years leading the Islamic Republic. Forced removal of a sitting Supreme Leader has no precedent in Iran's post-revolutionary history, making the current 100% probability an extreme outlier relative to baseline institutional stability.

Near-term catalysts centre on Khamenei's health and succession mechanisms. At 85 years old, he has experienced documented health issues, though Iranian state media maintains opacity regarding his condition. The Assembly of Experts, constitutionally responsible for selecting or removing the Supreme Leader, meets periodically but operates under opaque procedures. Traders should monitor Iranian state television announcements, statements from senior clerics, and reporting from international news agencies regarding any changes to Khamenei's public schedule or official duties. The two-year settlement window compresses significant uncertainty into a relatively short timeframe.

Wikipedia Context

Mojtaba Khamenei
Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei is an Iranian cleric and politician who has served as the third supreme leader of Iran since 2026. A member of the Khamenei family and the second son of second supreme leader Ali Khamenei, he previously served as Vakil of the Supreme Leader during his father's rule from 2008 to 2026.
Ali Khamenei
Ali Hosseini Khamenei was an Iranian politician and Shia cleric who served as the second supreme leader of Iran from 1989 until his assassination in the 2026 Iran war. A member of the Khamenei family, he previously served as the third president of Iran from 1981 to 1989. He held the title Grand Ayatollah, and his tenure as supreme leader, spanning 36 years a
Assassination of Ali Khamenei
On 28 February 2026, Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, was assassinated in Tehran as part of a series of Israeli airstrikes aimed at high-ranking Iranian officials. Khamenei's death was confirmed by the Iranian government on 1 March. His death occurred as part of a wider joint operation by the United States and Israel, using strategic locations intel
To the Youth in Europe and North America
"To the Youth in Europe and North America" is an online open letter written on 21 January 2015 by Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. According to Al-Monitor, it may be the first time that young people in the West have been directly addressed by a senior Muslim cleric about his religion.

How this market resolves

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 100% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $100 if YES resolves true — a 0% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$4.6M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

What is the current probability for "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?"?

As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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