Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify. If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| May 13 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| May 14 | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| May 15 | 35% YES | 66% NO |
| May 16 | 59% YES | 42% NO |
| May 17 | 67% YES | 34% NO |
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on 16 April 2026, which was subsequently extended on 23 April 2026. This market resolves positively if Israel announces a further extension or renewal of that ceasefire agreement by 17 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability of such an announcement, suggesting traders assess the likelihood of extension as negligible within the remaining settlement window.
Historical precedent from previous Israeli–Hezbollah ceasefires shows mixed durability. The 2006 UN-brokered ceasefire held for years but faced periodic violations and eventual breakdown. More recent de-escalations in the region have typically required external mediation—from the US, Qatar, or Egypt—and have often been extended incrementally rather than abandoned outright. The speed of the April 23 extension (seven days after the initial agreement) indicates some willingness to formalise continuity, though extension patterns vary significantly depending on whether underlying political conditions shift.
Traders should monitor statements from Israeli government officials, particularly the Prime Minister and Defence Ministry, alongside any announcements from Hezbollah or mediating parties. The US State Department and Egyptian or Qatari diplomatic channels frequently signal ceasefire developments before formal Israeli announcements. Key variables include cross-border incident reports, which could either trigger extension discussions or collapse negotiations. The compressed timeline—only 24 days from market inception to settlement—means any announcement would need to occur imminently to move the current zero probability meaningfully.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Israel Announces Ceasefire Extended by 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$54K in lifetime turnover and $107K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $54K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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