Trade: Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Colombia’s current leader, President Gustavo Petro, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Petro will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as President of Colombia within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $23K
- Total Volume
- $273K
- 24h Volume
- $686
- Open Interest
- $39K
Market outcomes
| December 31 | 97% YES | 3% NO |
| June 30 | 2% YES | 98% NO |
Market context
Gustavo Petro, Colombia's leftist president elected in 2022, faces a 97% implied probability of removal from office by June 2026 according to current Polymarket order book pricing. This exceptionally high probability reflects market assessment that Petro will either resign, be detained, or be prevented from fulfilling his presidential duties within the next eighteen months. The resolution criteria encompass any interruption to his tenure, regardless of duration or mechanism.
Historical precedent in Colombian politics demonstrates significant institutional instability. Three Colombian presidents have faced removal or forced departure since 1990, including Ernesto Samper's near-impeachment over narcotics funding in 1996 and Andrés Pastrana's political marginalisation. More recently, regional Latin American comparables—including Peru's institutional crises and Ecuador's security breakdowns—illustrate how rapidly presidential authority can erode. These cases suggest markets price removal risk substantially higher than formal constitutional procedures alone would indicate.
Current catalysts centre on Petro's judicial exposure and security environment. His administration faces multiple investigations into campaign financing irregularities, with the Prosecutor General's office actively examining alleged violations. Additionally, Colombia's escalating gang violence and territorial disputes—particularly involving the ELN guerrilla group—create operational pressures on executive function. The Constitutional Court has already constrained several Petro initiatives, signalling institutional resistance. Traders should monitor court rulings on campaign finance cases, any detention orders, and developments in Colombia's security situation, as these represent the most direct paths to market resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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Gustavo PetroGustavo Francisco Petro Urrego is a Colombian politician, former guerrilla leader, and economist who has served as the 35th president of Colombia since 2022. Upon inauguration, he became the first left-wing president in the recent history of Colombia. He is also the founder and leader of the political party Historic Pact (PH).
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Gustavo Petro 2022 presidential campaignThe 2022 presidential campaign of Gustavo Petro In 2021, Petro declared that he would be running in the 2022 elections. In September 2021, Petro announced that he would retire from politics if his campaign were not to succeed, stating that he does not intend to be an "eternal candidate". Petro's campaign platform included promoting green energy over fossil f
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Gustavo Petro 2018 presidential campaign
The 2018 presidential campaign of Gustavo Petro in 2018, Gustavo Petro was again a presidential candidate, this time getting the second best result in voting counting in the first round on 27 May, and advanced to the second round. His campaign was run by publicists Ángel Beccassino, Alberto Cienfuegos and Luis Fernando Pardo. A lawsuit was filed by citizens
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Gustavo Petro 2010 presidential campaign
The 2010 presidential campaign of Gustavo Petro in 2010, Gustavo Petro was elected presidential candidate, this time obtaining the fourth best result in the vote count in the first round on May 27 with 1,331,267, a sum that was not enough to advance to the second round on June 20.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$273K in lifetime turnover and $23K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for geopolitics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $686 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by...?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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